http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/ en deb.baum@bigpond.com Copyright 2012 2012-01-31T23:44:53+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_30th_jan/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_30th_jan/#When:23:44:53Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 30th January 2012. Service supplied by Rural Bank Last week’s release of the quarterly CPI data revealing no change (i.e. 0%) from the previous quarter (0.6%) has led commentators to believe the RBA is now certain to cut interest rates next week - but don’t be so sure. If I recall, the December decision to cut was, “finely balanced”, and the decision is no easier this time around. Reasons for a cut: The Australian economy has deteriorated a little since the last meeting, by way of lower employment numbers and the two-speed economy; High profile groups such as the World Bank and the IMF have warned of the risks of a “calamitous type crash in 2012”; and Domestic inflation now appears to be in check. Reasons to wait: The ECB has managed to avert a credit crunch via their long term loans at 1%; The US economy has perked up with better economic data and more confidence in the financial markets; and Asia has started to relax monetary policy and hence avoid a hard landing. The deciding factor is likely to come down to what we don’t get to see, namely, the results of the surveys and liaison the RBA conducts with the business community.  If there is a cut, attention will turn to how much the banks pass on to (lending) rates given the continued talk of their high borrowing costs. Click here for this week’s treasury commentary.  Regards _____________________________________________________________  Rudy Boeff Treasurer | Rural Bank Limited T (08) 8425 4914 | M 0439 500 180 | F (08) 8211 9014 Level 1, 27 Currie Street, Adelaide  SA  5000 | GPO Box 551, Adelaide,  SA  5001     National News 2012-01-31T23:44:53+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_23rd_jan/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_23rd_jan/#When:23:09:28Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 23rd January 2012. Service supplied by Rural Bank Good morning to all, This week’s focus will turn away from the usual euro-zone developments to local economic news, in particular, the scheduled release of the latest inflation data. Economists are expecting a low CPI number on Wednesday which suggests that the RBA can once again consider easing monetary policy. With inflation pressures receding and last week’s employment and consumer confidence numbers showing some sensitivity to events in Europe, the majority of economists (refer Bloomberg survey below) are expecting the next RBA Board meeting to deliver a further rate cut of 25 basis points, taking the official cash rate to 4.00% on February 7th. Click here for this week’s Treasury Commentary.  Regards _____________________________________________________________  Rudy Boeff Treasurer | Rural Bank Limited T (08) 8425 4914 | M 0439 500 180 | F (08) 8211 9014 Level 1, 27 Currie Street, Adelaide  SA  5000 | GPO Box 551, Adelaide,  SA  5001     National News 2012-01-22T23:09:28+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_16th_jan/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_16th_jan/#When:02:11:16Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 16th January 2012. Service supplied by Rural Bank Good morning to all, In news out over the weekend, Standard & Poor's downgraded the credit ratings of nine euro zone countries last Friday night, stripping France and Austria of their AAA status but stopped short of downgrading Germany. This was hardly a surprise and S&P’s commentary around the action provides no new information on the situation in Europe, but the action was unhelpful in terms of a hit to market sentiment as it probably signals further rating actions ahead. The timing was also poor, particularly as Greek debt negations were suspended on the same day. Click here for this weeks Treasury Report National News 2012-01-18T02:11:16+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/presidents_christmas_message/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/presidents_christmas_message/#When:04:48:14Z Dr Theresa Craig wishes all a wonderful and safe Christmas. As the year comes to an end everyone has lots to be thankful for. Yes, it has been an interesting year in Agriculture with many challenges; floods, fires, ban on live export, weather affecting harvest for soft commodities both positively and negatively, a high Australian dollar, shortage in skilled labour for the industry, a contentious MDBP, and the resource and agriculture sector learning how to coexist together. Agriculture has always worked within challenges, we are lucky to be in a country that prospers even in times of adversity. Globally we are in a unique position to help feed the ever growing world population. Corporations see a positive future in agriculture with new developments starting to emerge. Agribusiness in Australia has a bright future. This Christmas, on behalf of the Agribusiness Association of Australia I would like to wish all of you the time for a moment of peace to be able to reflect and be thankful.  Have a wonderful, safe and Merry Christmas.     Sincerely Dr. Theresa M Craig President Agribusiness Association of Australia National News 2011-12-14T04:48:14+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_12th_dec/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_12th_dec/#When:23:55:05Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 12th December 2011. Service supplied by Rural Bank The RBA cut the official cash rate by a further 25bp to 4.25%, in line with market expectations and a small majority of economists. This is now seen as the policy of “least regret” given that the outlook for global growth has continued to weaken in the past month due to the European sovereign debt issues. There is no scheduled Board meeting now till February so this December cut not only gives consumers an early xmas present but provides some insurance over the holiday period given the continued turmoil in Europe.   Meanwhile, European leaders arrived in Brussels late on Friday in another bid to pull together a solution to the European debt crisis. Markets have not reacted positively to any news released to date with reports Germany may be rejecting some of the debt-crisis fighting measures being discussed.  However, the news was positive over the weekend with global stocks rebounding and the Euro rallying after nearly all EU leaders agreed to build a closer fiscal union to address the debt crisis (Britain could not accept the proposed EU treaty).  A report that China planned a new $300bn vehicle to invest in Europe and the US also buoyed investor sentiment which will provide our market with a positive start this morning.   Click here for this week’s Treasury Commentary.  Regards _____________________________________________________________  Rudy Boeff Treasurer | Rural Bank Limited T (08) 8425 4914 | M 0439 500 180 | F (08) 8211 9014 Level 1, 27 Currie Street, Adelaide  SA  5000 | GPO Box 551, Adelaide,  SA  5001     National News 2011-12-11T23:55:05+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/agri_news_agri_food_news_7th_dec/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/agri_news_agri_food_news_7th_dec/#When:23:22:55Z The only organisation that gives you a collection of agri news from sources around the nation over the past week. Agri News   Farming on the fringe Two resign as SA grain politics heats up Water plan open for comment - but not on mining Basin Plan is a start, not an end at Narrabri Live export vote disappointing: WSPCA Farmers enjoy bumper season, but some still suffer Wheat crop to hit record 28m tonnes Phoney food fears ignore nimble market solutions Farmers back ALP live trade decision Agriculture blueprint spells out CSG fears Packing punch on the plate GM risks loom for wheat industry Cotton bale transport exemptions Westpac targets former ground in rural banking The future of manufacturing in regional areas Green future for education in Roseworthy Australian fish adapts to hotter waters: study Livestock transporters reluctant to move cattle from outback ... Murray-Darling environmental water wasted in 'trial and error' reforms Hard to swallow but food security threat is very real NSW wheat crop muddied by deluges Water chief aware of Murrumbidgee management issues Wine Australia downsizes offshore in bid to cut costs Dairy co-op to trade lactose online Welfare concerns about cattle on property in receivership Private label push could see manufacturers leak $4 billion to ... Push to register sensitive farm sites Bumper cotton crop Mining industry slams new farm laws Floods damage Moree cotton crop Greens' water threat simply silly: Tony Windsor Farmers fall silent while food brings home bacon Falling production in Brazil will help push up sugar prices Organic garlic harvest WA pearl farm to start growing its own shell Japan hungry for Aussie rice Major organic oil producer collapses Riverland wine grape glut shows signs of easing Grant to boost Riverland organic production Liberal senator Sean Edwards accused as wine deal sours Minister acts on irrigation The battle for the food bowl Colin Barnett says plan to pipe water to Murray Darling won't happen Mobile phones being used to check animal welfare Farm workers missing out River food bowl at risk of decline Food crisis looms amid foreign buy up Cherry growers hope for weather break to protect crop Water trader predicts prices will fall, then rise again Irrigators push Labor for policy change ALP conference rejects move to phase out live exports Haulage costs could bite as silos fill fast Irrigators group back Murray-Darling plan Live exports backed but not compulsory stunning Beef exports highest in 3 years Farmers call start-up funding Irrigation project opens in Tassie Horticulture industry calls on government to pay export quarantine costs Radfords wins two agribusiness gongs Focus on quality for Agribusiness Award winners Farmers key to food security Algae grower awarded for innovation Smart robot picks up three logistics awards for Nestlé Australia Dairy jitters to stay: Fonterra Watch for late season winter crop pests Almond harvest promising Bank under fire as cattle station goes under All smiles despite harvest hold-ups Farmers markets not sustainable NFF President says Gittins article shows lack of understanding Graziers win battle to save the land Tasmanian forestry family returns to business Agri Food News   Food package sizes cop a serve Is Retail Food Group Undervalued? Wine industry forced to cut overseas marketing jobs Cost burden to supply Coles Shopping, but not dropping Cardboard cans? Listing dents Bega profits Independent bakers hit out at supermarket power Bun fight as independent bakers demand their fair slice Queensland Government plan for fast-food calorie counts to beat obesity Queensland unveils new fast food laws Woolies unlikely to hit private-label target: UBS Woolies' ambition 'optimistic' Sail away with Cloudy Bay Coles to go contactless in 2012 Bright Food signals long-term investment in Australian food sector Clyne growers chase money New labels would expose misleading food marketing Food manufacturers win as government rejects traffic light ... Price wars threaten food industries: Elders KFC franchisee Collins Foods delivers lower profit The new night out - Australian wine and produce tasting nights Food sector looks sluggish, but on the up High cost puts good food out of reach Processed food behind NZers' salt binge Stop blaming Coles, Woolies: Farmers Supermarket giants Coles and Woolworths ratch up price war in lead-up to Christmas Web and food companies head Forbes up-and-comers list Australia gets behind Slow Food celebration Food gong for T&R Pastoral National News 2011-12-11T23:22:55+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_5th_dec/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_5th_dec/#When:23:32:19Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 5th December 2011. A service supplied by Rural Bank Good morning to all, It is clear that the RBA will be considering the case for a rate cut at this week’s board meeting with the argument likely to again be reasonably balanced between whether to cut or not. Notwithstanding the domestic data flow has been positive, with mining investment in particular remaining very strong; the global factors once again tilt the argument in favour of a possible “insurance move” by the RBA. However, I do recall in a recent speech by the RBA’s top economist, Phil Lowe that he explained that following the November rate cut, domestic “interest rates are now broadly neutral. They're neither expansionary … nor contractionary for the economy.” That is, the RBA does not need to cut them further to get them into neutral territory. So, based on the hard data and the RBA’s forecasts for gradually increasing core inflation over the next few years, there seems to be no real prima face case for a rate cut this week – but Europe remains the unknown. While financial markets have been pricing in a near 100% probability of a cut this week for some time, a recent survey of Australia’s leading economists shows an even split between the camp that are bringing forward the 25bps cut previously factored in for February to this Tuesday and the camp that believes the RBA will wait till next year. While I’ve probably swung (just) into the camp supporting an “insurance move” from the RBA, I believe a “no move in December” is still a far larger probability than the “no chance” that the market is factoring in at the moment – we will see who’s right on Tuesday. Click Here for this week’s Treasury Commentary.  Regards _____________________________________________________________  Rudy Boeff Treasurer | Rural Bank Limited T (08) 8425 4914 | M 0439 500 180 | F (08) 8211 9014 Level 1, 27 Currie Street, Adelaide  SA  5000 | GPO Box 551, Adelaide,  SA  5001     National News 2011-12-04T23:32:19+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/new_era_of_rural_prosperity/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/new_era_of_rural_prosperity/#When:05:16:27Z Written report by Neil Clark I believe the general public is failing to recognise that the outlook for agriculture is as bright as it really is, for example: Farmers are entering a period of exceptional cash flow with two years of estimated production of $50 billion; Farm numbers are declining but the number of large producers has increased by 74% in the past ten years; Banks remain positive lenders to the farm sector and total lending is now $60 billion; Machinery sales are at record levels and this will be followed by improving land values and farm sales; Water availability and storage dam levels are positive providing renewed security for irrigators and country towns; and Will you be ready to capitalise on the forthcoming opportunity? Click here to read the full story in PDF   RegardsNeil ClarkPrincipalNeil Clark & AssociatesPhone:   03 5441 1244Mob:      0418 571 411Web:      www.neilclark.com.au               National News 2011-11-29T05:16:27+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_28th_nov/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_28th_nov/#When:06:58:36Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 28th November 2011. A service supplied by Rural Bank Global risks continued to intensify last week due to renewed concerns that Europe’s sovereign debt problems are spreading to Europe’s core. French and German bond yields rose, the Italian 10-year bond yield is now back above the critical 7% and the German bond auction did not go as well as expected. Meanwhile, a weak Chinese manufacturing data print has raised concerns that China’s economy is slowing more sharply than expected, which may have an impact on Australia. The probability of an RBA rate cut in December has risen given heightened global risks, notwithstanding the recent positive domestic economic data. Even so, I find it hard to believe global conditions have deteriorated to the level needed to validate current financial market pricing which implies very aggressive rate cuts to take the cash rate below levels seen at the height of the GFC. Click here for this week’s Treasury Commentary.  Regards _____________________________________________________________ Rudy Boeff Treasurer | Rural Bank Limited T (08) 8425 4914 | M 0439 500 180 | F (08) 8211 9014 Level 1, 27 Currie Street, Adelaide  SA  5000 | GPO Box 551, Adelaide,  SA  5001   National News 2011-11-28T06:58:36+00:00 http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_21st_nov/ http://www.agribusiness.asn.au/index.php/events_content/weekly_market_commodity_report_week_commencing_21st_nov/#When:00:34:43Z Market Commentry and economic round up for the week beginning 21st November 2011. A service supplied by Rural Bank There was lots of commentary on the minutes of the latest RBA Board meeting last week. The common theme was one of shock that the decision (to eventually cut rates) was surprisingly finely balanced and the RBA could possibly considering at most one more rate cut, not the five or six currently priced in by financial markets, unless economic circumstances change. This may be caused by overseas developments with the euro zone reporting economic growth of just 0.2% in the Sept/Q, with solid growth in Germany and France (as expected) undermined by other countries’ poor performance. The outlook for the next three months is also grim, with the PIIGS nations all focussed on implementing austerity measures and no visible strategies in place to counter the poor economic growth forecasts. The feeling is that no amount of austerity in Greece, Italy, Spain, Ireland and even possibly France is likely to change market sentiment without some dramatic action in the shorter term, probably involving the European Central Bank. Many analysts believe the only way to stem the contagion for now is for the ECB to buy up large quantities of bonds, effectively the sort of 'quantitative easing' undertaken by the US and British central banks. Economists believe that a recession in the euro zone is now very much on the cards, with the crisis weighing heavily on consumer and producer sentiment, which may influence growth in the rest of the world. Click here for this week’s Treasury Commentary. National News 2011-11-22T00:34:43+00:00